Macroeconomics After Two Decades of Rational Expectations

optimally rational expectations and macroeconomics

This paper provides an alternative to the theory of rational expectations (RE). Its central idea is that the information set on which agents will choose to condition their expectations will not, in general, include all the available information. Our alternative has many of the attractive features of RE; it emerges from an explicit choice-theoretic framework; it has wide applicability; and it ca...

SERIE RESEARCH mEmORMIDII RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND NEW CLASSICAL MACROECONOMICS

Expectations in Macroeconomics: Adaptive versus Eductive Learning1

Rational expectations solutions to macroeconomic models are equilibria requiring the coordination of expectations, and one can investigate the local stability of these solutions under alternative learning rules. Eductive (mental) approaches to learning have somewhat stricter stability conditions than do adaptive (statistical) approaches, as we illustrate using three economic models. The expecta...

Improved mortality after STEMI over two decades

Results A total of 335 patients in 1986, 351 in 1996 and 178 patients in 2006 comprise the total study population of 864 STEMI patients. In addition 25 (6,9%) patients died within the first 24 hours of hospital admission in 1986, 33(15,6%) in 1996 and 5 (2,7%) in 2006. One-year mortality decreased from 26.3% in 1986 and 19.7% in 1996 to 12.9% in 2006 (p = 0.001). Cox proportional hazard analysi...

Rational Inattention in Macroeconomics: A Survey∗

In this paper we survey recent works on rational inattention (RI) in macroeconomics within the dynamic linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) setting. We first discuss how RI affects consumption smoothness and sensitivity, precautionary savings, asset pricing, portfolio choice, and aggregate fluctuations in the univariate case. We then discuss the applications of RI to macroeconomic models of permanen...